DAReS header

    DART/CAM spaghetti plot

    00Z 01 Feb 2003. 20 of 80 member ensemble. T85 CAM GPH at 500hPa.

    Sensitiviy Analysis on Hurricane Katrina

    Ensembles allow exploration of circulation on hurricane position.

    GPS RO observations

    Rapid support for new observation types.

    Chemical Weather Forecasting and Analysis

    CAM-Chem, WRF-Chem, MOPITT, MODIS

    DART, WRF, and MARS

     

    CAM inflation values for U Wind

    after 1 month of adaptive inflation.

    CAM inflation values for U Wind

    after 1 month of DAMPED adaptive inflation.

    DART/CMAQ CO assimilation

     

    Planetary Boundary Layer

    Probabilistic nowcasting with a single column model.

    A good rank histogram

    Lorenz '96 - the true state is as likely as any of the ensemble members.

    A bad rank histogram (filter divergence)

    Lorenz '96 - the true state generally falls outside the ensemble members.

    Tracer advection

    One of the tutorial examples explores sources/sinks.

    Impact of PS observations on V winds

    DART has novel algorithms to explore localization.

    Ensemble Trajectories

    DART has routines to explore and diagnose.

    Ensemble Trajectories

    Explore the impact of the increments.

    time series of 'total error'

    Quantify the effects of observations or parameter settings.

    CAM@T85 observation space performance

    DART natively supports direct comparisons with observations.

    CAM@T85 assimilation performance

    See if all the observations are being used.



    DART research is broadly categorized along three avenues: one is the research toward data assimilation algorithmic and computational efficiency, another is toward implementing and exploiting the information in observations with one model or another, and another is to learn more about the behavior of an individual model - perhaps by looking at systematic features of the increments.





    List of Collaborators ...

    under construction



    Research into DART

    There are a large number of research topics into the mechanics of DART itself. There are also a large number of software enhancements, simplifications, and supporting widgets that need to be made -- those are not included here, as they are not really research.

    • assimilate, then forecast
    • MPI methods (async 5?)
    • inflation algorithms
    • localization schemes
    • parameter estimation
    • verification strategies
    • known bugs/workarounds

    Research Projects involving DART




    Model Performance

    DART/CAM spaghetti plot Ensemble Data assimilation can provide qualitative and quantitative uncertainty for quantities of interest to weather forecasters. [link to more information]

    Kevin Raeder, raeder@ucar.edu



    Chemical Data Assimilation

    CAM-Chem/DART CO Column We are currently applying an ensemble-based chemical data assimilation system, consisting of regional to global chemical transport models (CAM-Chem, WRF-Chem) in conjunction with DART, for a joint assimilation of meteorological observations and satellite-derived CO measurements from MOPITT and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from MODIS. The chemical data assimilation system has been recently used for near-real time chemical forecasting (see http://gctm.acd.ucar.edu/arctas) to support flight planning during the NASA Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) (see also http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/index.php/ncar/articles/supporting_arctas_field_campaign). [link to more information]

    Ave Arellano, arellano@ucar.edu



    GPS RO Observations and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

    GPS RO geometry schematic Profiles of atmospheric quantities deduced from GPS Radio Occultation data are available in otherwise data-sparse regions and provide information used to forecast the behavior of tropical cyclones. The COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 mission has been providing about 2000 data profiles per day since September 2007. [link to more information]

    Hui Liu, hliu@ucar.edu



    Sensitivity Analyses

    DART/WRF sensitivity plot Forecast sensitivity analysis provides an objective means of evaluating how initial condition errors affect a forecast and where to gather additional observations to reduce forecast errors. Most sensitivity studies use the adjoint of a linearized forecast model to determine the gradient of a forecast metric with respect to the initial conditions. Adjoints suffer from a number of difficulties including coding, linearity assumptions, and moist processes. Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis provides an attractive alternative to adjoint-based methods because it combines data assimilation and sensitivity analysis in a consistent manner. This image illustrates the effect of zonal winds aloft on the position of Hurricane Katrina. [link to more information]

    Ryan Torn, torn@atmos.albany.edu



    Assimilation of CO

    CMAQ CO assimilation result This project describes an integrated approach to modeling atmospheric chemistry with trace gas data assimilation. Specifically, we ran CMAQ from within DART to assimilate both synthetic and real observations of CO for the period of June 2001. [link to more information]

    Alexis Zubrow, azubrow@unc.edu



    Assimilation on MARS

    DART/MARS_Lawson graphic The planetary atmospheres group at Caltech has produced a global and planetary version of NCAR's WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) Model. We are using DART to attempt data assimilation within the Mars atmosphere using the Mars version of WRF, MarsWRF, as our GCM. [link to more information]

    Greg Lawson, wglawson@gps.caltech.edu



    Inertio-Gravity waves

    DART/CAM normal modes This project aims at quantifying the impact of various motion types in analysis and forecast fields by using normal modes. The DART/CAM is the main analysis system used in the project. The first question addressed is about how large part of the atmospheric energy is associated with the inertio-gravity motions, an important part of the global circulation primarily because of their role in the tropical system. [link to more information]

    Nedjeljka Zagar, nedjeljka.zagar@fmf.uni-lj.si



    Planetary Boundary Layer

    DART/CAM spaghetti plot A long-term goal of this work is to find an efficient system for probabilistic planetary boundary layer (PBL) nowcasting that can be employed wherever surface observations are present. One approach showing promise is the use of a single column model (SCM) and ensemble filter data assimilation techniques. [link to more information]

    Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, rostkier@ucar.edu
    Josh Hacker, hacker@ucar.edu



    The Lorenz '96 model

    bad rank histogram
    good rank histogram
    The Lorenz '96 model is one of our favorite models. In our implementation, it is a 40-variable model that can be used to test inflation algorithms, the effects of localization schemes, the integrity of the DART installation itself, the state-space diagnostic routines; it is extensively used in the tutorial, and can even be run as a standalone executable to test the MPI support on a machine. [link to more information]

    Jeff Anderson, jla@ucar.edu, and
    Tim Hoar, thoar@ucar.edu



    Suggestions for the DART facility ...


    There are a large number of software enhancements, simplifications, and supporting widgets that need to be made -- the length of the 'to_do' list is a constant source of simultaneous amusement and dismay for Tim and Nancy. If you would like to share an idea on how to improve DART, we're all ears. Long requests should be sent to the dart@ucar.edu email address. Short ones can be entered here:



    If you provide an email address, we may contact you to either ask for more information or let you know that "it's done". your e-mail address