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Global temperatures simluated from a climate model and the observed data.

Global annual temperatures for the last 150 years with output from two runs of the NCAR climate sytem model, a control run with greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosols fixed at 1870 levels and a simulation with the estimated increases due to human activites. The data are annual global mean temperature anomalies in degrees centigrade. Anomalies are the difference between the mean and the reference temperature over the base period (1861-1900), 285.938. Add this value to get temperatures in Kelvin.

Data are in three files, each has two columns: year and anomaly value. Note that that climate model output extends into the 21st century.

The model results are expected to reproduce "climate", which, in this case, might be long term trends, but are not expected to accurately predict each yearly mean for observed data. For a statistician the model results are a single realization of the earth's climate history from a numerical model. The observed data is also one realization from the real system.

This is the data from Figure 1 in Nychka, D. (2000) Challenges in understanding the atmosphere. Journal of the American Statistical Association 95 972-975.

For the scientific details of the numerical model experiments, see: Dai, A., T.M.L. Wigley, B.A. Boville, J.T. Kiehl, and L.E. Buja, 2000: Climates of the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate, in press.
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