Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties

Dorin Drignei, GSP post doc

Methods of design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE) will be implemented in a procedure for estimating three climate parameters. Preliminary results, based on observed and model surface temperature data, will show how the procedure is used to find the best estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, the net aerosol forcing and the ocean vertical thermal diffusivity, and to characterize their uncertainty.