Statistical Fluctuations in Convective Forcing Computed from Big-Domain Cloud-Resolving Model SimulationsGlenn Shutts
UK Met Office
The Met Office cloud-resolving model has been used to quantify the statistics of tropical convection and its forcing effect by coarse-graining the model tendencies. The probability density functions (pdfs) associated with temperature are computed for all points, and separately for points whose parametrized convective tendency (obtained diagnostically from the coarse grained fields) lies within pre-defined ranges. In this way, the pdfs of effective convective temperature tendency can be grouped according to a measure of mean convective forcing strength. Craig and Cohen developed a statistical mechanics approach to modelling convective mass flux fluctuations and this turns out to be helpful in understanding the model-derived statistics.
Some results from aquaplanet simulations are used to quantify the statistical fluctations of convective temperature forcing in the Unified Model and are compared with those derived from the cloud-resolving model simulation.
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