Functional ANOVA Modeling of Regional Climate Model Experiments

Cari Kaufman, SAMSI and Steve Sain, NCAR

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is exploring uncertainties in regional climate modeling over North America by nesting a set of regional models within a set of global models. As a diagnostic tool to compare models across spatial regions, we propose a functional ANOVA approach, in which we decompose the climate response into a common mean response, effects due to regional model, effects due to global model, and interactions. We model these functional effects using Gaussian process priors, and we use the posterior distribution to compare sources of variability in model output.

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