Constructing a risk map for pyroclastic flows: Combining simulations and data to predict rare events

Elaine Spiller

We propose an emulator guided sampling method to calculate the probabilities of catastrophic volcanic flow events in populated regions. Flow volume is a primary input to the TITAN pyroclastic flow simulator, and we will discuss the use of the Wolpert-Lunagomez flow-volume model in conjunction with TITAN simulations in calculating these probabilities.

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