Welcome to the IDAG Resource Page

The International ad hoc Detection and Attribution Group

Presentations from the 2011 Group meeting: Jan 31-Feb 2 2011
Presentations from the 2010 Group meeting: Jan 27-29 2010
Presentations from the 2009 Group meeting: Jan 21-23 2009
Presentations from the 2008 Group meeting: Jan 28-30 2008
IDAG review papers.
Papers by IDAG members organized by DOE grant task number.
A lit review archive. Alphabetical by author. Includes papers by IDAG members.
Summary of extended discussion of "Event" attribution from the 2008 January meeting.

IDAG Spring Meeting January-February 2011
Boulder Colorado, NCAR


Monday 31 January

9:00 Welcome: Claudia Tebaldi and Mike Wehner
9:15 Daithi Stone: Report from AR5 WG2 Meeting
Peter Stott: Report from AR5 WG1 Meeting
Francis Zwiers: Detection of External Influence on Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Tim Del Sole: Incorporating Natural Predictable Patterns in Fingerprinting and Decadal Prediction
Chris Forest: Exploring Feedbacks from Ocean Circulations on Estimates of Climate System Properties and Projections
Jerry Meehl: Understanding the U.S. East-West Differential of Record Temperatures: The Warming Hole

2:00 David Pierce: Atmospheric Variability: The Weather Expression of Climate Change
David Karoly: An Update on Using Simple Indices to Investigate Global Climate Variability and Change
Laurent Terray: Decadal changes in the tropical upper ocean surface salinity: evidence for an anthropogenic fingerprint
Hideo Shiogama: Physics Ensemble of MIROC5 CGCM Experimental Design and Preliminary Results
Haiyan Teng: Decadal Predictability in CSSM3
Paul Kushner: Signals of Circulation Trends at High Latitudes
Gabi Hegerl: Influence of Human and Natural Forcing on European Seasonal Temperatures, Extreme Temperatures and Zonal and Seasonal Precipitation
Sam Dean: Regional Detection and Attribution for New Zealand: With Implications for the Southern Hemisphere

Tuesday 2 February

9:00 Peter Stott: Near-Surface Temperature Attribution (and Greening)
Daithi Stone: Robustness of Estimates of Attributable Risk
Marty Hoerling: Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?
Arun Kumar: Sea Ice and Terrestrial and Atmospheric Influence
Nikos Christidis: Detection and Attribution of Changes in Temperature Extremes
Seung-Ki Min:Multi-Model Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes
Richard Smith: Extreme Event Attribution

2:00 Tom Knutson: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Research and Assessments
Armineh Barkhordarian: Consistency of Recently Observed Trends with Climate Change Projections over the Mediterranean Region
3:40 Phil Duffy
Robert Portmann: Early Onset of Perceptible Local Warming in Low Latitude Countries
Yasuhiro Ishizaki:Dependencies of Pattern Scaling on Emission Scenarios in AR5
Melissa Bukovsky: Trends in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Models

Wednesday 3 February

9:00 Myles Allen: Using D&A to Constrain Climate Forecasts: What Does the CMIP Ensemble Mean?
Jara Imbers: How Errors in Model-Simulated Internal Variability Could Impact on D&A

IDAG Spring Meeting January 2010
Jan 27-29
Boulder Colorado, NCAR HQ


Wednesday 27 January

from 2:00 COFFEE available, social hour
2:30-2:40 Melanie and Tara and Gabi: Welcome and logistics
2:40-3:00 Agency Comments:Anjuli Bamzai and Chris Miller

3:00-3:30 "Thoughts on IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable" - Thomas Stocker
"CMIP5 Update" - Karl Taylor
"Good Practice Guidance Paper on Attribution" - Gabi Hegerl
4:00-4:15 Discussion of matters around AR5 and Communication

4:15-4:30 COFFEE BREAK


4:30-5:00 "Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor Changes to Decadal Variations in the Rate of Warming" - Susan Solomon
"Detection and Attribution of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature" - Nathan Gillett
"Using Modern Satellite Data to Constrain Climate Models, and Bayesian Climate Projection" - Stephen Leroy

Thursday 28 January

9:00-9:30 Bettina Lackner:Detecting Changes in GPS RO Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere Data
"Multi-Model Averaging and GCM Evaluation; Summary of IPCC Meeting for IDAG" - Reto Knutti


10:00-10:30 "Detecting Human influence on Extreme Precipitation Changes" - Seung-Ki Min

10:30-11:00 COFFEE BREAK

11:00-11:30 "Detecting Changes in Extremes" - Xuebin Zhang
"Single-Step Attribution of Extremes to Human Influence" - Peter Stott
"A Regional Multi-variate D&A Study of Hydrological Changes in the Western US" - David Pierce

LUNCH 12:30-1:30

1:30-2:00 Ching-Yee Chang: D&A on Atlantic Hemispheric Temperature Gradient
"Role of External Forcing on a Seasonal Reconstruction of European Temperatures" - Gabi Hegerl
"Consistency of Observed Trends over the Mediterranean with Climate Change Projections" - Armina Barkhordarian
"Changes in North Atlantic Polar Low Statistics" - Hans von Storch

3:15-3:30 COFFEE BREAK

3:30-4:00 "Statistical Calibration of Climate System Properties" - Chris Forest
"Emission Scenario Dependencies in Climate Change Assessments of the Hydrological Cycle" - Hideo Shiogama

4:30-5:00 Claudia Tebaldi: Beating Records in US Extremes


5:00-5:30 "Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Climate Change on Regional Scales" - Francis Zwiers
"A Statistical Approach to Operational Attribution" - Richard Smith

Friday 29 January


9:00-9:30 "Detection and Attribution and the Dreams of Pharaoh" - Myles Allen
"An Objective Bayesian Approach to Climate Forecasting" - Dan Rowlands


10:00-10:30 "SST and (Terrestrial) Climate Variability" - Arun Kumar

10:30-11:00 COFFEE BREAK

11:00-11:30 "A Strong Bout of Natural Cooling in 2008" - Judith Perlwitz
"Single Step Attribution of Extremes" - Peter Stott
"Development of an Attribution Forecast System and Test of Progress in Climate Change Modelling" - Daithi Stone
"Physical Processes Associated with Regional Precipitation Trends" - Marty Hoerling

LUNCH 12:45-1:45

1:45-2:15 the US East-West Differential of the Ratio of Record High Maximum to Low Minimum Temperatures and a Particular Event: the Warming Hole" - Jerry Meehl
2:15-2:45 Discussion of event attribution: Experimental design for C20C led by Peter

2:45-3:15 COFFEE BREAK

3:15-5:30 Continuing IDAG session, Claudia Tebaldi: Status of renewal; progress in review papers-Stott, Karoly, Allen, final checking of work program progress; other topics at hand.

IDAG Spring Meeting January 2009
Jan 21-23

Agenda and Presentations

Wednesday 21 January

TOPIC Large scale changes and feedbacks
9:00-9:05 Tara and Gabi: welcome
9:05-9:35 Agency comments: Anujuli Bamzai ad Chris Miller
9:35-10:05 "Climate Sensitivity and Transient Response, What's New?" - Reto Knutti
10:05-10:35 "Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions" - Susan Solomon


11:00-11:30 "Observational Constraints on Carbon-Climate Feedbacks" - Nathan Gillett
11:30-12:00 "CMIP5 Simulation Plans" - Karl Taylor
12:00-12:30 "Scalar Trend Prediction in Climate Change" - Stephen Leroy
12:30-1:00 Ben Santer: Incorporating model quality information in detection and attribution studies

LUNCH 1:00-2:00

2:00-2:30 "Primary Results of Aerosols Impact on Precipitation Change" - Toru Nozawa
2:30-3:00 "Additive Effect of Two Solar Forcing Mechanisms and Influences on Tropical Pacific Climate" - Jerry Meehl
3:00-3:30 "Detection and Attribution of Ocean Changes" - Peter Stott


4:00-6:00 Closed Session IDAG Members Only"

GROUP DINNER 7:30 Laudisio's (more info on logistics later).

Thursday 22 January

9:00-9:30 "Utility of Detection and Attribution" - Hans von Storch
9:30-10:00 "Constraining Future Climate: Why Attribution Matters" - Myles Allen

TOPIC Regional attribution; impact relevant variables, precipitation changes, extremes, attribution of individual extremes and events; status of planning of MIPs/IPCC simulations

10:00-10:30 "Gridded Datasets of Daily Temperature and Precipitation and Comparisons with ERA-40 Driven RCMs" - Phil Jones


11:00-11:30 "On the Detection and Attribution of an Anthropogenic Influence in Northern Europe" - Jonas Bhend
11:30-12:00 Detection and Attribution for Precipitation Trends" - Richard Smith
12:00-12:30 Daily Summer Temperature Variability: Driving Processes, Uncertainties and Its Role for Extremes" - Erich Fischer
12:30-1:00 "Influence of Large Scale Climate Variability on Winter Precipitation Extremes Over North America" - Xuebin Zhang

LUNCH 1:00-2:00

2:00-2:30 "Some Recent Detection Results and Extremes Part I" - Francis Zwiers
"Some Recent Detection Results and Extremes Part II"
2:30-3:00 "Spatial and Seasonal Patterns in Climate Change, Temperatures and Precipitation Across the United States" - Bob Portman
3:00-3:30 "Detection of the Effect of Land Use Change on Warm Extremes in Europe and North America" - Gabi Hegerl


4:00-4:30 "European Climate Change" - Simon Tett
4:30-5:00 "IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Chapter 1" - Linda Mearns
5:00-5:30 "Attributing Phenological Change in an Australian Insect to Anthropogenic Climate Warming" - David Karoly
5:30-6:00 Mike Wehner: The USP Report

Friday 23 January

CLOSED SESSION: status of workplan, planning of papers, (Myles large scale paper status review);planning for regional impacts review paper; continuation plan.

"Review Paper Wiley Climate Change"
"Review Outline"

TOPIC Decadal predictions; discussion.
11:00-11:30 "Oxford (Capetown) Programme on the Attribution of Weather Risk" - Daithi Stone
"Detection and Attribution of Human Influence on Climate"
11:30-12:00 "Detection of Decadal Predictability" - Tim Del Sole
12:00-12:30 "What is Causing the Variability in Global Mean Land Temperature" - Marty Hoerling
12:30-1:00 "The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Climate: Perspective from Coupled Chemistry Climate Models" - Judith Perlwitz

LUNCH 1:00-2:00

2:00-2:30 "Decadal Predictions, Experimental Design: Can We Work With the Results?" - Gabi Hegerl
2:30-3:00 Karl Taylor: Natural forcing in MIPS
3:00-3:30 Group discussion on open questions; spillover
3:30 meeting closes; afterward possibly small groups meet to hammer out new proposal and papers

January 2008 Powerpoint presentations linked into the schedule from the 2008 Group meeting.

(If you want, here is a gzipped TAR file of all presentations. Warning, 293Mega bytes.)


1. Regional climate change.

8:50 Welcome, agenda, practicals
9:10 Anjuli Bamzai: Perspective from DOE
9:20 Chris Miller: Perspective from NOAA

9:30 "Detection of an emerging regional scale signal in future climate change simulations and in the future climate variations." - David Karoly
9:50 "Examples of End-to-End and Multi-Scale Attribution" - Nikos Christidis
10:10 "Attribution of regional extreme temperatures, observational uncertainty, and Atlantic salinity changes" - Peter Stott
10:40 Discussion

11:00 coffee

11:20 "Attribution of polar temperature changes" - Nathan Gillett
11:40 "D&A results for Western U.S." - Ben Santer , Tim Barnett
12:00 "Detection and Attribution Activities at PCMDI." - Ben Santer
12:20 Discussion

1:00-2:00 Lunch

2:00 "1970's transition" - Guest presentation by Jerry Meehl of NCAR
2:20 "Attribution of high latitude precipitation changes" - Francis Zwiers
2:40 "Regional Climate Change from an Impacts Perspective" – Guest presentation by Linda Mearns of NCAR
3:00 "A future of Floods and Droughts" – Mike Wehner
3:20 Discussion

3:40 Coffee

4:00 "Detectability of regional scale precipitation and temperature changes in a surrogate climate" -Jonas Bhend
4:20 "Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the U.S." - Claudia Tebaldi
4:40 "Regional Detection and Attribution: Some updates" – Xuebin Zhang
5:00 The European Heat Wave - Erich Fischer
5:20 "Storminess in the Extratropics review plus new results for N Europe and NE Canada." - Hans von Storch
5:40 Discussion; Wrapup regional attribution topic
6:00 Adjourn

Tuesday (9-5:30):

'Operational attribution':

9:00 "Toward an operational weather risk attribution system" - Daithi Stone
9:20 "Mechanisms for the Recent Surge in US warming" - Martin Hoerling
9:50 "How should NOAA's new Climate Attribution Team handle near real-time attribution of climate anomalies to anthropogenic forcing?" - Tom Knutson

Summary of extended discussion of "Event" attribution.

10:30 Coffee break

10:50 "Experiment design Proposed for CMIP5" Karl Taylor
11:10 "Early 21st Century Short term Predictions" - Tim Stockdale and Gabi Hegerl
11:20 Discussion

Large-scale changes and climate system properties:

11:50 Probabilistic predictions - Myles Allen
12:10 "Challenges in Quantifying Climate Model Bias, Dependence, and Performance" - Reto Knutti
12:30 Additivity of signals - Toru Nozawa
12:50 Discussion

1:00-2:00 Lunch

Group housekeeping

2:00 Discussion of workplan progress and plans; next meeting
3:00 Discussion of review paper #1: Myles Allen to lead

3:30 Coffee

3:50 "Use of multi model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty due to model structural error" - Jonty Rougier
4:10 "Some Comments on Synthesizing Models" - Doug "Godfather" Nychka
4:30 " Probabalility Distributions and Climate Science: Honest Fictions or False Advertising?"Guest presentation by Leonard Smith, Pembroke College Oxford and LSE
4:50 Group Discussion
5:30 adjourn

Wednesday: (9-lunch)

9:00 Group discussion probabilistic projections, short term projections
9:30 "Review paper and a History of Paleoclimatology" - Phil Jones.
10:00 - Caspar Ammann

10:20 Coffee break

10:50 "Towards understanding regional changes in past millennium" - Gabi Hegerl
11:05 "The effect of horizontal resolution on the simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model" - Mike Wehner

12:00 wrapup