nFirst
formalize the question as one we can actually answer and convince the questioner
that that is what they actually meant.
–Treat weather events as
indivisible, like deaths.
–Use Òattributable riskÓ
methods from epidemiology.
–P1:
probability of event under current conditions.
–P0:
probability of similar event with external driver removed.
–Fraction Attributable Risk
FAR = 1 - P0/P1
–Using coupled models to
estimate attributable warming.
–Statistical methods to
estimate FAR (Stott et al, 2004).
–GCM-based methods to
estimate FAR (Pall et al, 2007).
–Extensions to other regions
and variables (Hoerling, 2007).