nFirst formalize
the question as one we can actually answer and convince the questioner that that is what they actually meant.
–Treat
weather events as indivisible, like deaths.
–Use
Òattributable riskÓ methods from epidemiology.
–P1: probability of event under current
conditions.
–P0: probability of similar event with external
driver removed.
–Fraction
Attributable Risk FAR = 1 - P0/P1
–Using
coupled models to estimate attributable warming.
–Statistical
methods to estimate FAR (Stott et al, 2004).
–GCM-based
methods to estimate FAR (Pall et al, 2007).
–Extensions
to other regions and variables (Hoerling, 2007).