Inferring external contributions to risk from external contributions to expected temperatures
nStott et al
(2004): assumed internal variability in large-area-averaged temperatures is unaffected by changing mean climate (no evidence to contrary).
nFit EV
distribution to model-simulated variability, allowing for uncertainty in EV parameters.
nSubtract possible
offsets (change location parameter) due to anthropogenic influence to generate possible temperature distributions.
nOnly applies to
variables like large-scale temperatures for which we can defensibly assume no change in variability.