A template for operational attribution
(Pall et al, 2007)
nAim: to
quantify the role of increased greenhouse gases in precipitation responsible for 2000
floods.
nChallenge:
relatively unlikely event even given 2000 climate drivers and sea surface temperatures
(SSTs).
nApproach:
large (multi-thousand-member) ensemble simulation of April 2000 – March 2001 using
forecast-resolution global model (80km resolution near
UK).
nIdentical
Ònon-industrialÓ ensemble removing the influence of increased greenhouse gases,
including attributable SST change.
nUse several
coupled models for SST pattern to allow for uncertainty.