PowerPoint Presentation - Presentation at Yale University

Where can statistical science provide further assistance to future D&A research?

1.In assessing sensitivity of D&A results to Òmodel qualityÓ

2.By contributing state-of-the-art space-time modeling approaches to Òfill in the gapsÓ in observational datasets with sparse, space- and time-varying coverage

3.By helping to provide a better assessment of the Òtrade-offsÓ between ensemble size (for any individual model) and the number of models contributing to a multi-model average

4.By contributing improved methods for assessing whether human influences have modulated the statistical behavior of existing modes of natural variability

5.By bringing statistical rigor to regression-based predictions of hurricane activity

6.Better constraining the Transient Climate Response obtained from D&A methods


	Here is an outline of the structure of my talk.
	First IÕll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change.
	Then IÕll define some terms that IÕll be using in my talk.
	Next IÕll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change.
	Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called ÒfingerprintÓ study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions.
	Finally, in my concluding remarks, IÕll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.