PowerPoint Presentation - Presentation at Yale University

Future research I: Sensitivity of D&A results to Òmodel qualityÓ

lA number of recent studies have attempted to weight model projections of future climate change (generally by model performance in simulating present-day climatological means)

lThus far, no attempt to use any form of weighting in multi-model D&A work

lAll multi-model D&A studies to date are Òone model, one voteÓ

lAre results from current multi-model D&A studies biased by inclusion of information from models with noticeable deficiencies in simulation of variability?


	Here is an outline of the structure of my talk.
	First IÕll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change.
	Then IÕll define some terms that IÕll be using in my talk.
	Next IÕll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change.
	Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called ÒfingerprintÓ study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions.
	Finally, in my concluding remarks, IÕll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.