Simple indices
¥Time series of annual counts or exceedences
E.g., number of exceedence above 90th percentile
¥Some studies use thresholds as high as 99.7th percentile
¥Coupled with simple trend analysis techniques or standard detection and attribution methods
Detected anthropogenic influence in observed surface temperature indices
Perfect and imperfect model studies of potential to detect anthropogenic influence in temperature and precipitation extremes
¥Statistical issues include
̉resolutionÓ of observational data
adaptation of threshold to base period
use of simple analysis techniques that implicitly assume data are Gaussian