¥Detection and attribution is an emerging application
–include expected responses to external forcing as covariates
–one approach is via Bayes Factors
¥Main Assumptions
–Observed process is weakly stationary
–Annual sample large enough to justify use of EV
distribution
¥Some challenges
–Data coverage
–Scaling issue
–How best to use spatial information
–What to compare model output against
–Are data being used efficiently?