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24 hour precipitation as
observed at the Toronto Airport during a 2-year period and as simulated by
two generations of the CCCma atmospheric general circulation model at a grid
point near Toronto. The diagram
demonstrates that these GCMs simulate precipitation variability that is
similar to that which is observed.
The more recent version of the model (AGCM3) appears to produce
smaller precipitation extremes at this particular location that the earlier
version of the model. Scale considerations suggest that models should
simulate smaller precipitation extremes than observed, and that there should
be increasing agreement as the resolution of the model increases.
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