| Regional Climate Models |
| Part 1: Motivation for regional climate modeling |
| WhatÕs a model? |
| The Climate System |
| Climate models |
| Starting point for numerical models: Laws of physics |
| We have a problemÉ |
| Numerical solutions |
| Discretizing a continuous world |
| Still have problems |
| Increased computing power has allowed finer resolution |
| North America in the Hadley Centre global climate model |
| HadCM3 grid spacing relative to Tropical Storm Edouard |
| Advantages of higher resolution |
| Regional climate models allow use of finer resolution |
| Dynamical Downscaling |
| How do regional climate models work? |
| Regional models cover a limited area and so need information from global models |
| Global and regional model grid points |
| Even more problems |
| Some examples of parameterization |
| Problems continue |
| Advantages of ensembles |
| An ensemble of IPCC model runs |
| A simple ensemble |
| Mother Of Ensembles (aka Shukla Staircase, other names) |
| Summary of Part 1 |
| Part 2: Regional climate model methods and projects |
| Mother Of Ensembles (aka Shukla Staircase, other names) |
| How much of this is necessary? |
| A study of sources of uncertainty in regional climate models |
| Sensitivity to initial conditions: Lagged-average ensemble |
| Lagged ensemble |
| Perturbed physics ensemble |
| Perturbed physics ensemble |
| Mixed-physics ensemble |
| Multi-model ensemble |
| Test case |
| Analysis measures |
| Equitable threat score |
| Other criteria |
| Area-averaged precipitation in the north-central U.S. |
| Verification results |
| Results from longer regional climate simulations using the lagged method |
| Sensitivity to source of boundary data |
| In summary |
| Model intercomparison programs (MIPs) |
| A few past and ongoing regional climate MIPS |
| Current MIPS |
| North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) |
| Slide 51 |
| Slide 52 |
| NARCCAP Participants |
| NARCCAP Domain |
| Comparison with observations |
| Regions Analyzed |
| Coastal California |
| Monthly time series of precipitation in coastal California |
| Correlation with Observed Precipitation - Coastal California |
| Pacific Coast |
| Slide 61 |
| Slide 62 |
| Upper Mississippi River Basin |
| Slide 64 |
| Deep South |
| Monthly Time Series - Deep South |
| Monthly Time Series - Deep South |
| Maritime provinces |
| Slide 69 |
| Transferability |
| Slide 71 |
| Slide 72 |
| Summary |
| Slide 74 |
| Thank You! |