NCAR Summer School, 13 August 2008
Regional Climate Models
Advantages of ensembles
¥May allow some estimate of confidence or uncertainty:
¥If two solutions disagree, at least one of them is wrong.
¥If solutions agree, can we have greater confidence?  Currently much work on this topic. Spread-skill relationships.
¥In practice, the simple average of all the solutions – i.e., the ensemble mean prediction – often performs as well as or better than the best individual solution.