NCAR Summer School, 13 August 2008
Regional Climate Models
Sensitivity to initial conditions: Lagged-average ensemble
¥Start a forecast using an analysis at some time T for initial conditions.
¥Perform additional forecasts starting from times T+1, T+2, T+3,... all ending at the same time as the first forecast.
¥The overlap period gives an ensemble of forecasts starting from different but physically plausible initial states.
¥here, forecasts begin at 00 UTC 15 May 1993 and at preceding 12-hourly times