NCAR Summer
School, 13 August 2008
Regional Climate Models
Equitable
threat score
ETS
= (H - C) / (H + F + M - C)
where C = hits by ÒchanceÓ = (forecasted
occurrences) x (event frequency) = (H + F) x (H + M) / N
¥notice phase
error reduces H, and increases both F and M
H = hit
M = miss
F = false alarm
O = correct non-occurrence
N = number of forecasts