Claudia Tebaldi's Home Page

Papers, Tech Reports, Conference Proceedings

Smith, R.L., C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L.O.Mearns (2008),Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, forthcoming.
Tebaldi C. and B. Sanso' (2008) Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, forthcoming
Groves, D.G., D. Yates and C. Tebaldi (2008) Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning. Water Resources Research, forthcoming
Tebaldi C. and D. B. Lobell (2008), Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophysical Research Letters
Lobell, .B., M.B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, M.D. Mastrandrea, W.P. Falcon and R. L. Naylor (2008), Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science
Meehl, G.A., C. Tebaldi, H. Teng and T.C. Peterson (2007), Current and future US extremes and El Nino. Geophysical Research Letters
Meehl, G.A, J. M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi (2007), Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to changes in temperature extremes over the US. Geophysical Research Letters
Tebaldi, C. and R. Knutti (2007), The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
Fowler, H.J., Blenkinsop, S. and C. Tebaldi (2007), Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology
Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe , J.M. Arblaster, and G.A. Meehl (2006), Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change.
Lopez, A., C. Tebaldi, M. New, D. Stainforth, M. Allen and J. Kettleborough (2006), Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. Journal of Climate.
Sharman, R., C. Tebaldi, J. Wolff and G. Wiener (2006), An integrated approach to mid- and upper-level turbulence forecasting. Weather and Forecasting , v.21.
G.A. Meehl, J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, (2005). Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, v.32.
C. Tebaldi, R. L. Smith, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns (2005) Quantifying uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change: a Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multimodel Ensembles. Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 10, pp. 1524-1540.
A.Dobra, C.Tebaldi and M. West (2006) Data augmentation in multi-way contingency tables with fixed marginal totals. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, v. 136, n. 2, pp. 355-372
C. Tebaldi, L.O. Mearns, D. Nychka and R. L. Smith (2004) Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 31.
G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, C. M. Ammann, J. A. Arblaster, T. M. Wigley and C.Tebaldi (2004) Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in 20th century climate. Journal of Climate, vol. 17, no. 19, pp. 3721-3727
G. A. Meehl, C.Tebaldi and D. Nychka (2004) Changes in frost days in simulations of 21st century climate. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 23, No. 5, pp. 495-511
G. A. Meehl and C. Tebaldi (2004) More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st Century. Science, Vol. 305, No. 5686, pp. 994-997
C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L. O. Mearns (2004) From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results In Proceedings of the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
R.W. Katz, M.B. Parlange and C. Tebaldi (2003) Stochastic Modeling of the Effects of Large-Scale Circulation on Daily Weather in the Southeastern U.S. Climatic Change, vol. 60 (1,2): 189-216.
D. Nychka and C. Tebaldi (2003) Comment on "Calculation of Average, Uncertainty Range and Reliability of Regional Climate Changes from AOGCM Simulations via the ``Reliability Ensemble Averaging'' (REA) method" Journal of Climate: Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 883-884.
C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka, B. G. Brown and B. Sharman (2002) Flexible Discriminant Techniques for Forecasting Clear-Air Turbulence. Environmetrics, vol. 13 (8): 859-878.
C. Tebaldi, M. West and A.F. Karr (2002) Statistical Analyses of Freeway Traffic Flows. Journal of Forecasting: vol. 21 (2): 39-68.
C. Tebaldi (2002) Looking Far Back vs. Looking Around Enough: Operational Weather Forecasting by "Spatial" Composition of Recent Observations. In Proceedings of the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL.
C. Tebaldi, G. Branstator and D. Nychka (2001) Looking for Nonlinearities in the Large Scale Dynamics of the Atmosphere. In Proceedings of the First SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, Chicago, IL.
G. Parmigiani, D. Berry, E. Winer, C. Tebaldi, J. Iglehart and L. Prosnitz (1999) Is Axillary Node Dissection Indicated for Early Stage Breast Cancer? -- A Decision Analysis. Journal of Clinical Oncology; vol. 17 (5): 1465-73.
C. Tebaldi and M. West (1998) Bayesian Inference on Network Traffic Using Link Count Data (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association; vol. 93 (442): pp.557-576.

C. Tebaldi and Jaimi Yee (2002) From Ensemble Spread to Confidence in the Forecast. RAP Technical Report.

C. Tebaldi (2001), Statistical Prediction of Ceiling and Visibility by Surface Observations. RAP Technical Report.

C. Tebaldi (2000) Influence of Large Scale Circulation Measures on Precipitation at Local Stations in the South-East US. NRCSE Technical Reports Series, 55-2000.