| Paleoclimate
Reconstructions: Eulogy to the good old days? |
| Caspar Ammann | |
| NCAR-CGD | |
| ammann@ucar.edu |
| Overview |
| Broad introduction to some applications in the field of paleoclimate reconstructions (two key issues: Global Warming is different from Natural Variability; Problem of a trend in the observational record and its impact on reconstructions) | |
| Hemispheric Climate : Energy balance dominates | |
| Need and potential advantages of spatial information | |
| The big promise É | |
| É and its demise | |
| Overcoming some barriers before the Phoenix can rise again? Questions for Statisticians: how to best reconstruct past natural patterns, how to isolate forced variations from noise. | |
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| Paleoclimate Data : Millennial/Centennial |
| Regional Climate Variability : Cariaco Basin |
| Proxy Signal of Past explosive Volcanism |
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| How to reconstruct noisy climates? |
| Climate Reconstructions |
| "Forcings" |
| Forcings | |
| Models | |
| Vs | |
| Reconstructions |
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| Extensive use of Teleconnections |
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| "Estimate PC loadings" |
| Estimate PC loadings |
| "Independent Evaluation" |
| Independent Evaluation |
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| The Promise |
| "NAO / AO / NAM" |
| NAO / AO / NAM |
| NAO/AO/NAM |
| NAO Index |
| Simulation of Volcanic Effect on Europe in Winter |
| "CSM 1.4 : NAO..." |
| CSM 1.4 : NAO response to Volcanoes |
| Solar Signal? Necessity to have interactive Ozone and a real Stratosphere? |
| Solar Signal in the GISS Model |
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| The Demise |
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| How to recognize and separate the anthropogenic signal? |
| Implications for some MBH
applications Different Patterns! |
| Moritz et al. |
| Conclusions |
| The global warming signal is different from the interannual to decadal modes of variability | |
| Large regional noise in short instrumental data requires longer series to assess systematic trends in modes | |
| Proxy records offer an extension to the instrumental record, but significant challenges remain (proper patterns used for training, quality of proxies) | |
| We need to improve our dynamical understanding of the primary modes of variability in order to make regional climate change predictions |