A parametric and process-oriented view of the carbon system |
The challenge: explain the controls over the systemÕs response |
Carbon emissions and uptakes
since 1800 (Gt C) |
Expanding the model: |
A Hierarchical view of the carbon system |
Drivers (weather, nutrients, fires) |
A-R: A key feature of the system |
What we measure: Net Ecosystem Exchange | |
(the flux of CO2 across an imaginary plane above the canopy) | |
But: NEE cannot be directly parameterized | |
NEE = Photosynthesis - Respiration | |
The model (or observation equation) must ÒtransformÓ the observation (NEE) into physically modeling components. | |
This is neglecting complex but different processes such as fire and forest harvest. | |
Ecosystem Model Structure |
Some key model equations |
NEE = Ra +Rh - GPP | |
GPPmax = AamaxAd+Rleaf | |
GPPpot = GPPmaxDtempDvpdDlight | |
Rh = CsKhQ10sTsoil/10(W/Wc) | |
GPP = canopy photosynthesis, R denotes respiration, Amax = max leaf-level carbon assimilation, Ds are scalars for environmental factors, Ad, a scaling factor over time, Cs = substrate, K, rate constant, Q10 the temperature scalar and W, water scalars. |
Estimation |
(zj - H(Fapj,Fpaj))tR-j1 (zj - H(Fapj,Fpaj))/2 + (pj - Pj)tR-j1 (pj - Pj) /2 | |
The rubber bands are the prior estimates of parameters |
Slide 10 |
Control variables |
Temperature | |
Soil moisture | |
Nutrient availability | |
Fire regime | |
Light interception | |
Land management | |
Atmospheric CO2 | |
etc |
Concentrations have less information about processes and parameters than do fluxes |
Why? | |
They are Òone step more removedÓ (by transport) | |
That step includes ÒinvertibleÓ (advective) processes and irreversible (diffusive) processes | |
There is information loss along the chain of causation |
Get closer to the answer: measure fluxes |
FLUXNET |
Slide 15 |
More gadgets |
More gadgets |
CO2, H2O T, u,v,w |
Slide 18 |
Time-scale character of carbon modeling |
Observed variability of fluxes |
Analyzed variability of processes |
Analysis of controls |
Self-consistent parameter sets |
Slide 24 |
Slide 25 |
"Evaluation against an independent water..." |
Evaluation against an independent water flux measurement |
Normal Model Parameterization Method |
Step 2É.. |
Self-consistent parameter sets |
Analysis of controls |
What does this type of local study contribute to global modeling? |
We can use this to understand the information in different types of observation |
Carbon from space |
Day and Night |
Remember, weÕve shown a huge loss of process information without diurnal information |
Future active CO2 experiments make day and night observations |
Process priors for global models |
The global scale is very distant from processes |
Distributed local measurements and innovative measurement approaches can bridge the gap |
Slide 37 |
Slide 38 |
Slide 39 |
Vertical profiles and CO2 ÒlakesÓ |
"Carbon data assimilation" |
Carbon data assimilation |
A few references |
Vukicevic, T., B.H. Braswell and D.S. Schimel. 2001. A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange. Tellus (B) 53:150-170. (variational) | |
Braswell, B.H., W.J. Sacks, E. Linder and D.S. Schimel. 2004. Estimating ecosystem process parameters by assimilation of eddy flux observations of NEE. Global Change Biol. 11:335-355 (MCMC) | |
Williams, M. Schwarz, B.E. Law, J. Irvine, and M.R. Kurpius. 2005. An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation. Glov=bal Change Biol. 11:85-105 (EKF) | |
Wang, Y-P. and D Barrett. 2003. stimating regional terrestrial carbon fluxes for the Australian continent using a multiple-constraint approach. I. Using remotely sensed data and ecological observations of net primary production. Tellus (B) 55:270-289 (Synthesis inversion) |