A parametric and process-oriented view of the carbon system
The challenge: explain the controls over the systemÕs response
Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800
(Gt C)
Expanding the model:

A Hierarchical view of the carbon system
Drivers (weather, nutrients, fires)

A-R: A key feature of the system
What we measure: Net Ecosystem Exchange
(the flux of CO2 across an imaginary plane above the canopy)
But: NEE cannot be directly parameterized
NEE = Photosynthesis - Respiration
The model (or observation equation) must ÒtransformÓ the observation (NEE) into physically modeling components.
This is neglecting complex but different processes such as fire and forest harvest.

Ecosystem Model Structure
Some key model equations
NEE = Ra +Rh - GPP
GPPmax = AamaxAd+Rleaf
GPPpot = GPPmaxDtempDvpdDlight
Rh = CsKhQ10sTsoil/10(W/Wc)
GPP = canopy photosynthesis, R denotes respiration, Amax = max leaf-level carbon assimilation, Ds are scalars for environmental factors, Ad, a scaling factor over time, Cs  = substrate, K, rate constant, Q10 the temperature scalar and W, water scalars.

Estimation
(zj - H(Fapj,Fpaj))tR-j1 (zj - H(Fapj,Fpaj))/2 + (pj - Pj)tR-j1 (pj - Pj) /2
The rubber bands are the prior estimates of parameters

Slide 10
Control variables
Temperature
Soil moisture
Nutrient availability
Fire regime
Light interception
Land management
Atmospheric CO2
etc

Concentrations have less information about processes and parameters than do fluxes
Why?
They are Òone step more removedÓ (by transport)
That step includes ÒinvertibleÓ (advective) processes and irreversible (diffusive) processes
There is information loss along the chain of causation

Get closer to the answer: measure fluxes
FLUXNET
Slide 15
More gadgets
More gadgets
           CO2, H2O          T, u,v,w

Slide 18
Time-scale character of carbon modeling
Observed variability of fluxes
Analyzed variability of processes
Analysis of controls
Self-consistent parameter sets
Slide 24
Slide 25
"Evaluation against an independent water..."
Evaluation against an independent water flux measurement

Normal Model Parameterization Method
Step 2É..
Self-consistent parameter sets
Analysis of controls
What does this type of local study contribute to global modeling?
We can use this to understand the information in different types of observation

Carbon from space
Day and Night
Remember, weÕve shown a huge loss of process information without diurnal information

Future active CO2 experiments make day and night observations
Process priors for global models
The global scale is very distant from processes
Distributed local measurements and innovative measurement approaches can bridge the gap

Slide 37
Slide 38
Slide 39
Vertical profiles and CO2 ÒlakesÓ
"Carbon data assimilation"
Carbon data assimilation

A few references
Vukicevic, T., B.H. Braswell and D.S. Schimel.  2001.  A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange. Tellus (B)  53:150-170. (variational)
Braswell, B.H., W.J. Sacks, E. Linder and D.S. Schimel.  2004.  Estimating ecosystem process parameters by assimilation of eddy flux observations of NEE.  Global Change Biol. 11:335-355 (MCMC)
Williams, M. Schwarz, B.E. Law, J. Irvine, and M.R. Kurpius. 2005. An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation. Glov=bal Change Biol. 11:85-105 (EKF)
Wang, Y-P. and D Barrett. 2003. stimating regional terrestrial carbon fluxes for the Australian continent using a multiple-constraint approach. I. Using remotely sensed data and ecological observations of net primary production. Tellus (B) 55:270-289 (Synthesis inversion)