Oxford
University
A
template for operational attribution
(Pall et al, 2007)
(Pall et al, 2007)
nAim:
to quantify the role of increased greenhouse gases in
precipitation responsible for 2000 floods.
nChallenge: relatively unlikely event even given 2000 climate drivers and sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
nApproach: large (multi-thousand-member) ensemble simulation of April 2000 – March 2001 using forecast-resolution global model (80km resolution near UK).
nIdentical Ònon-industrialÓ ensemble removing the influence of increased greenhouse gases, including attributable SST change.
nUse several coupled models for SST pattern to allow for uncertainty.
nChallenge: relatively unlikely event even given 2000 climate drivers and sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
nApproach: large (multi-thousand-member) ensemble simulation of April 2000 – March 2001 using forecast-resolution global model (80km resolution near UK).
nIdentical Ònon-industrialÓ ensemble removing the influence of increased greenhouse gases, including attributable SST change.
nUse several coupled models for SST pattern to allow for uncertainty.