20
Estimating signal-to-noise ratios
and Òdetection timesÓ
| Detecting ÒsignificantÓ climate change
means showing that a given change in climate is unusual relative to some
yardstick that you have of ÒnormalÓ behavior. |
|
| If you feel hot, and measure a body
temperature of 102oF, then youÕve ÒdetectedÓ a fever - you know
that that this elevated temperature is outside the limits of ÒnormalÓ body
temperature. |
|
| But this measurement doesnÕt give you
the cause of the fever. |
|
| To deduce the cause, youÕll probably
need to undergo some more sophisticated tests - perhaps urine and blood
analyses, maybe even x-rays or CAT scans. |
|
| Once you have the results from these
tests, itÕs much easier to narrow down the potential causes of the fever. |
|
| This is attribution - the process of
establishing cause and effect. |