PowerPoint Presentation - Presentation at Yale University

Where can consensus be expected in the near future?

1.We will have some form of “operational attribution” capability

2.D&A studies will routinely use information from large, multi-model ensembles (and will make more intelligent use of this information)

3.Structural uncertainties in observations will become an integral part of D&A research

4.We will have formally identified anthropogenic fingerprints

∆At sub-continental spatial scales

∆In variables more relevant to climate impacts

∆In plant and animal distributions and abundances

5.Fingerprinting will be feasible with increasingly shorter (< 30-year) observational records


	Here is an outline of the structure of my talk.
	First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change.
	Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk.
	Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change.
	Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions.
	Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.