Tropical Atmospheric Variability forced by
Oceanic Internal Variability
Markus Jochum
NCAR
Abstract
Atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted
to quantify the contribution of internal oceanic variability in the
form of tropical instability waves (TIWs) to interannual wind and
rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific. It is found that in the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific and near 25N and 25S TIWs force
a significant increase in wind and rainfall variability from
interseasonal to interannual time scales. Because of the stochastic
nature of TIWs this means that climate models that do not take them
into account will underestimate the strength and number of extreme
events and may overestimate forecast capability.
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