Stochastic Modeling of ENSO

Richard Kleeman
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences

A basic feature of ENSO is that it is irregular. Two hypotheses have been advanced over the past 15 years to explain this. One involves chaotic interaction between the annual and ENSO cycles while the other involves the stochastic forcing of the coupled climate system by atmospheric transients such as the MJO. We review the theoretical, observational and modeling basis for the second explanation and examine possible future refinements.

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