Predictability in Dynamical Systems Relevant to Climate and Weather
Richard Kleeman
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Abstract
Variability of predictability from one forecast to another is
an important utilitarian consideration in practical climate and
weather prediction. Here we review new theoretical tools for
examining this question derived from information theory. We also
examine the question in a selection of simple and complex/realistic
models appropriate for both ENSO and weather predictions. Our
conclusions for the weather case differ from what is often
conventionally assumed in practical statistical prediction.
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