Subtask 1.1) Assess the implications of new datasets and observations for existing estimates of attributable surface warming.
Subtask 1.2) Assess the evidence for anthropogenic and natural influence on global
precipitation and circulation.
Attribution of observed surface humidity
changes to human influence Willett et al.
Detection of human influence
on twentieth-century precipitation trends Zhang et al.
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture
content. Santer et al.
Subtask 1.3) Assess the implications of past changes in temperature and ocean heat
content for global transient and equilibrium climate change.
Simulated and observed variability in
ocean temperature and heat content. Achutrao et al.
Constraints on the transient climate response
from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake. Knutti and Tomassini - --NEW--published version added April 2009.
A review of uncertainties in global temperature
projections over the twenty-first century Knutti et al - --NEW--published version added April 2009.
The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s
temperature to radiation changesKnutti --NEW--added May 2010.
Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface
warming so well?Knutti et al --NEW--added May 2010.
Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenariosTomassini and Knutti et al--NEW--added May 2010.
Subtask 1.4) Application of detection and attribution results to provide objective measures
of climate model performance and reliability.
Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations Forster et al.
Spatial Analysis to quantify numerical model bias
and dependence: How many models are there? Jun, Knutti, and Nychka
Local eigenvalue analysis of CMIP3 climate model errors. Jun, Knutti, and Nychka
Progress in detection and Attribution Research book chapter
by Santer and Wigley
Subtask 1.5) Review paper on activites in Task 1
Subtask 2.1) Assess contribution of external influences on climate to changes in regional
temperatures and precipitation, their extremes and impacts related to these changes.
Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes
assessed from twentieth century climate simulations. Min et al.
Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm
to human influence in the climate. Allen et al.
Climate change detection over different land surface
vegetation classes. Dang et al.
Contributions of natural and anthropogenic
forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the United States. Meehl et al.
Attribution of Polar Warming to Human Influence. Gillett, Stone, Stott et al.--NEW--published version added April 2010.
Subtask 2.2) Assess contribution of external influences on climate to changes in tropical and
extra-tropical storminess and wave heights.
Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface
temperature change to anthropogenic influence. Gillett et al --NEW--published version added April 2009.
Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in
Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Santer et al.
Joint projections of temperature and precipitation
change from multiple climate models: A hierarchical baysian approach. Tebaldi and Sanso --NEW--published version added April 2009.
Subtask 2.3) Assess the implications of observed climate and climate change for probablistic future
regional climate projections.
Evaluation of proxy-based millenial
reconstruction methods. Lee and Zwiers
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probablistic
climate projections. Tebaldi and Knutti
Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections
from a multi-variate baysian analysis. Furrer et al.
Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models--NEW--added May2010.
Subtask 2.4) Detection and attribution of hydrological change in the western U.S.
When will Lake Mead go Dry?Barnett and Pierce --NEW--published version added April 2009.
Western U.S. hydrology
Subtask 2.5) Assess implications of past climate events for potential earling warning systems of sudden climate change.
Subtask 2.6) Review paper on activites in Task 2
AchutaRao_oceanheatuptake.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Alexander_dailyClimExtremes.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Allen_QuantfyAnthroInfluenc.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Annan_Constraints.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Arblaster_SouthernAnnularMode.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Arzel_2006_Ocean-Modelling_1.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Bender_Knutson_modeled impact_anthropogenic--NEW--added April 2010.
Berner_phanozericO2.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Bhend_winterprecipitation.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Bony_clouds.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Bony_feedbacks.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Burke_drought.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Cane_Paleoclimate.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Chung_IndianSST.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Church_Acceleration_Sealevel.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Church_Sealevel_Pacific.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Church_Volcanic_Impact.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Cook_WestAfricanMonsoon.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Crooks_space_time_sat.pdf
Delworth_AnthropAerosols.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Delworth_Ramaswamy_Stenchikov_ImpactofAerosols.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Douville_warming_regional.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Duan_recent_Tibetan_warming.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Forest_estimated_PDFS.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Supplemental documents
Forster_sensitivity.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Free_RATPAC.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Fyfe_circumpolar.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Gedney_detection_river_runoff.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Gedneysupplement.pdf
Gillett_cyclonogenesis.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Gillett_Attribution_Anthropogenic_influence_sea_level_pressure.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Gleckler_Krakatoa.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Greene_glaciermass.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Gregory_ice-sheet_contributions.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Gregory_simulated_global-mean.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Hegerl_detection_1500 year.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Hegerl_beyond_mean_signals.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Held_etal_Sahel_Drought.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Held_etal_corrections_figs.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Held_hydro.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
<Hoerling_African_rainfall.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
IDAG Ad Hoc Review of Recent Advances.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Jonesetal2009_wengen.pdf
Kettleborough_uncertainty.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Kharin_etal_simulatedextremes.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Kiehl_modelresponses.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Kintisch 2008.pdf--NEW added on Nov 11 2008
Knight_etal_signaturethermohaline.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Knutson_etal_simulation_atlantic_hurricane.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Knutti_uncertainties.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Knutti_Meehl_ClimateSensitivity.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Kunkel_etal_USwarmingHole.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Kutzbach_changes_regional_water.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Lambert_precipitation.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Lean_etal_SORCE.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Lee_etal_Prediction.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Leroy_etal_GPS.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Lyman_etal_RecentCooling.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Lyman_etal_CorrectionRecentCooling.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Masson_pastandfuture1.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Masson_pastandfuture2.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Masson_pastandfutureamplification.pdf
Meehlmid70s.JClim.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
MerryfieldW_changesENSO.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Michaels_commentsonmodeling.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Miller_annularpatterns.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Min_Hense_BayesianI.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Min_Hense_BayesianII.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Nagashima_carbonaceous_aerosols.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Neelin_etal_tropical_drying.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Nozawa_etal_surface_air.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Paeth_feichter_aerosols.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Pezza_etal_BlockingShear.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Pielke_etal_Hurricanes.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Qian_etal_landsurface.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Raphael_Holland_20thcent_simulation.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Rind_AO_NAOpart1.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Rind_AO_NAOpart2.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Robock_Pinatubo_comment.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Romanou_etal_surface_solar.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Saenko_wind-driven.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Santer_etal_second-generation.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Santer_etal_oceancyclogenesis.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Santer_etal_amplification.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Santer_etal_PNAS_Main_Text_16jun09DRAFT.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
Santer_etal_PNAS_Supporting_Text_16jun09.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
santer_IJoC_published_2008.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
Santer_incorporating_model_quality.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Scaife_etal_stratosphericNAO.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Schneider_etal_climate_sensitivity.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Shiogama_etal_ENSO.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Sherwood_radiosondes.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Sherwood_radiosondes_supp.pdf
Shindell_tropospheric_ozone.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Smith_Tebaldi_etal_Bayesian Modeling_uncertainty.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Soden_radiative_signature.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Solomon_ozonesonde.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Solomon_tropical_ozone.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Stenchikov_Arctic_oscillation.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Stone_detection_attribution_human_influence.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
2008-recordsZoritaStorch.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
2009.bhend+storch[1}.pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
feser.storch.mz[1].pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
storch.matulla.estorms[1].pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
StorchZahn_LongtermClim[1].pdf--NEW--added June 2009.
Stott_obsconstraints.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Stott_HadGEM.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Stott_regional_perspective.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Sun_etal_Rain.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Sun_etal_Rain2.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Vecchi_Knutson_NAcyclones.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Webster_tropical_cyclone.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Wigley_comment_Pinatubo.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Willett_Gillett_etal_surface_humidity_changes.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Wohlfahrt_etal_eval_coupled_ocean-atmosphere.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Wong_ERBEreanalysis.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Wu_deepNAfreshening.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Yamaguchi_warming_patterns_NPacific.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Yin_stormtracks.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Yokohata_volcanic_forcing.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Yoshimori_Maunder_minimum.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Zhang_seasonal_Arctic_ice.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Zhang_20thcentury_precipitation_trends.pdf--NEW--added April 2010.
Zhao_multimodel_ocean.pdf--NEW--published version added April 2009.
Wang-Zwiers-etal.pdf--NEW-- added July 2009.